Modelling Expansion and Densification in Peri-urban Areas: The Case of Goba Ward, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract

Modelling expansion and densification of peri-urban areas may potentially help local authorities and planners to develop intervention strategies for addressing urban planning challenges. This paper employs satellite images information extracted between 2005 and 2020 to predict future expansion and densification trends in Goba ward (Dar es Salaam). 231 grids were established to allow the extraction of data. Each grid was examined from 2005 to 2020 for four periods of five-year intervals. Multiple regression modelling was applied to develop two models (expansion and densification) targeting built-up area and the number of buildings. The results suggest that an increase in the number of buildings will lead to the expansion of a built-up area. High building density in Goba ward has been observed in some areas where economic activities take place (around main centres and main roads). Predictions for expansion and densification show that areas in main centres like Kinzudi, Tegeta A and Goba; and areas around main roads will experience more expansion and densification by 2035. These results inform town planers, decision- and policy-makers to understand the past, current and future situations of expansion and densification; and take proper decisions for enhancing sustainable urban development.

Keywords: expansion, densification, peri-urban areas, multiple regression modelling