Poll-“pollution”?: The politics of numbers in the 2013 elections in Kenya

Alexander B. Makulilo

Abstract


The 2013 opinion polls for the general elections in Kenya were discredited by politicians, academics and the general public as partisan. This was despite the enactment of the Publication of Electoral Opinion Polls Act No. 39 of 2012 which meant to ensure the scientific standards are upheld by pollsters. The purpose of this article is to interrogate the methodological issues of one of the leading pollsters, namely, the Ipsos Synovate, in order to ascertain the validity of such claims. It notes that after the official nomination by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on 18 January, Synovate, behaving like a weather forecaster conducted only four polls in just a week time, that is, between 12 and 19 February and projected for the entire elections. The article reveals that the sampling, question design as well as reporting by the Synovate were flawed culminating into a controversial poll outcome.

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